Week 11 Preview: Jets at Patriots

Tonight’s game may take the Jets-Patriots rivalry to a new level.  I will admit, however, that over the past few years, the rivalry has been very over-hyped, but tonight’s matchup is bigger than ever.

With both teams sitting at 6-3, a victory may give the winning team a chance to run away with the division.  At 7-3, the Patriots would at least temporarily sit at #2 in the AFC with a virtual 2 game lead in the AFC east (with the tiebreaker over the Jets).  A loss would throw the Pats a game behind the division lead, and just another wild card contender in the AFC.  Clearly, the importance of this game is unmeasurable.

Key Injuries – Patriots

Lamont Jordan, RB – Questionable

Sammy Morris, RB – Questionable

Stephen Neal, G – Questionable

Adalius Thomas, LB – Out

Terrence Wheatley, CB – Out

Ty Warren, DE - Questionable

Analysis: The Patriots are clearly very beaten up on both sides of the ball.  If the Patriots are without Warren (game-time decision), they may have a tough time stopping the run.  Also, if Morris can’t go (all indications are that Lamont Jordan will be out again), the Patriots will once again rely on BenJarvus Green-Ellis on the ground.

Key Injuries – Jets

Bubba Franks, TE - Out

Eric Smith, S - Out

David Harris, ILB – Out

Mike Nugent, K – Questionable

Analysis: The biggest impact loss for the Jets will be David Harris, their leading tackler and great run defender.  The Jets will also be without starting safety Eric Smith again, look for Ty Law to take a few of those snaps.

Keys to the Game – Patriots

1. Stop the Run Early - If Brett Favre has a biggest weakness, it is certainly his ability to turn the ball over.  If the Patriots can get off to a good start stuffing the run, they will force Favre to throw, and with the wet conditions, he may become even more turnover prone.

2. Keep the Defense Well Rested -  With the bad conditions, keeping the defense rested will be a key, so that they can’t get as worn down by long drives.  To counter that, the Patriots need to produce the same long, smash-mouth drives that they produced last week against the Bills.  Although the Jets, ranked fifth in run defense, will try to stop that.

3. Give Cassel Time – The last two weeks, Matt Cassel has looked really good stepping into the pocket and letting the ball rip.  Why?  Pass protection.  Over the past two weeks Cassel has only been sacked one time.  The Jets are ranked near the top of the league in quarterback sacks at 30, and it will be up to the likes of Nick Kazcur and Matt Light to make sure Cassel has time back there.

Players to Watch – Patriots

1. Stephen Neal, RG, #61 – The Patriots’ pass protection has been rediculously better since Neal came back from injury.  However, he is questionable this week with a lingering knee injury, so keep your eye on him.

2. Matt Cassel, QB, #16 – If the Jets manage to shut down the run, the Patriots may be forced to lean on Matt Cassel’s shoulders. He has progressed a lot the last few weeks, but he has had a pretty consistent attack on the ground.

3. Pierre Woods, OLB, #58 – With Adalius Thomas out, young linebacker Pierre Woods will be thrust into the starting linebacker.  With decent speed, good pass rushing skills, and potential in zone coverage ability, it will be interesting to see how Woods responds to his big opportunity.

4. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, #42 – Green-Ellis will be facing his toughest matchup this season against the Jets stingy run defense.  If he’s going to make a real name for himself (no pun intended), this may just be his chance.

5. Vince Wilfork, NT, #75 – A lot of people are going to be eyeing the matchup of Big Vince against Kris Jenkins, even though they won’t exactly be matching up.  However, I give my nod to Vincey.

Players to Watch – Jets

1. Ty Law, DB, #22 – I’d like to see the Patriots tear Law apart, and if he’s covering Wes Welker, that may just happen.  However, if Law does play, you know he can make a big impact, and I would watch out for him.

2. Kris Jenkins, NT, #77 – Again… the battle of the nosetackles.  No matter who wins that media-hyped matchup, one thing is for sure; Kris Jenkins has help revitalize the Jets defense, and will make a huge impact no matter what.

3. Calvin Pace, OLB, #97 – A lot of people questioned the Jets decision to throw big money at the former Cardinal.  However, it has paid off, as Pace has had huge dividends, bringing an Adalius Thomas type impact.

4. Chansi Stuckey, WR, #83 – The second year receiver has turned into a consistent threat for the Jets, and is the type of player that could make a big impact tonight.

5. Vernon Gholston, OLB, #56 – Just kidding.  What a difference six months makes.

Greg’s Prediction: Patriots 26 Jets 17

In the end, I think this turns into a sloppy, grind it out game.  I think the Jets make too many turnovers, but I think the Patriots will fail to cap off some drives with touchdowns, making this one interesting.  Random prediction, but I have a feeling Mike Vrabel is going to score a touchdown in this one.