State of the Patriots

Note: Hey guys, I’m proud to introduce Stephen Verman, who will be writing in a contributing role for PatriotsBlog.net.  This is Stephen’s first article, and I hope you join me in welcoming him.

My fellow Patriots fans and all who read this blog, it is a privilege to join the talented team at PatriotsBlog.net. I am a long time Pats fan, born and raised in Vermont. I now live in enemy territory – New York City, surrounded by Giants fans; Giants fans that jumped on the Jets bandwagon this year when the rest of the AFC decided they were not interested in making the playoffs. I cannot tell you how sick I am of reading about getting “Sanchized” on “Revis Island,” and Rex Ryan predicting the Jets are favorites to win Best Picture. But this is not an article about the Jets, this is an article on the state of the Patriots.

Offense:

It is clear we can no longer count on Brady-to-Moss to provide 6 points at a moments notice. Whatever the reason – defenses have adjusted, Randy no longer has as much to prove, Tom’s touch on the deep ball has not returned to his 2007 level – this should not be a major concern. Tom is one of the best at taking what defenses will allow, and spreading the ball around. 2007 was a treat, but not a viable game plan. Josh McDaniels’ creativity was missed, and without him the Patriots should return to what has worked in the past: a versatile running game with a solid group of possession receivers who know how to get open against single coverage. This will help open the field up for deep bombs to Moss once the defense is forced to stay closer to the line of scrimmage, and make Brady’s ability to work off the play-action a weapon again.

Some of the players necessary for this approach are currently on the roster, but an infusion of talent is required at WR, TE, and especially RB. The Pats need a power runner – somebody who can guarantee you a yard or two, and possibly smash their way to the second level for a ten yard gain. Sammy Morris performed this role in the past, but does not have much left to give. This power runner should be brought in through the draft as to have the longest shelf life possible. A home-run type of running back with speed and catching ability who could eventually take over for Kevin Faulk would also be a welcome addition, but I see this more as a luxury than a need.

At least two more receivers should be brought in, and one of them should be a veteran who is already familiar with the types of routes they will be required to run. I don’t see a lot of players like this available, but names to keep in mind are Malcolm Floyd, Lance Moore and Steve Breaston who would be restricted free agents in an uncapped year; and Kevin Walter who will be an unrestricted free agent. Trading for Anquan Boldin would be ideal, but probably cost too much in draft picks and salary.
Brandon Tate, a third round pick last year was touted as an excellent receiver coming out of college.  If he is sufficiently recovered from his injuries he could help, but he is basically a rookie. A veteran, one or two rookies, and Tate should be enough for a solid receiving corps, especially once Welker returns.

Fullback and tight end are also needs. A stout FB would help the power running game, and could become a backfield blocker on passing downs. The loss of Heath Evans forced the Patriots to use either Sammy Morris or Mark LeVoir, but a player that can both run and block would better disguise the play. The Patriots were somewhat predictable on offense this season. When LeVoir came in it was obvious they intended to run the ball, and they generally ran it whenever Tom was under center, while in a shotgun formation they usually passed. A true fullback and a versatile tight end would help add some flexibility, and allow for more deception. Chris Baker was a nice addition at TE, but a faster pass-catching specialist with some blocking ability would help both the running game and passing attack tremendously. There looks to be a number of players like this in the draft, with Jermaine Gresham at the top of the list.

Defense:

Two years ago Bill Belichick stated he wanted to get faster on defense. The NFL has become faster as a league, and while strength and toughness are still highly valued, they are no longer enough. Jerod Mayo, Brandon Meriweather, Gary Guyton, Pat Chung, Darius Butler, Jonathan Wilhite and Terrence Wheatley have all gone a long way toward accomplishing this goal, but the transformation is not complete. Defensive end, and especially outside linebacker could use an upgrade in quickness – players who can penetrate into the backfield to sack the quarterback or stop a runner for a loss.

As we’ve seen from this past season, strength and sound tackling are also necessary. Gary Guyton should not be the inside linebacker next to Mayo. Guyton is more of a sub-package player than an every down 3-4 inside linebacker. An ILB with strong tackling fundamentals and run-stuffing ability would be a better compliment – someone who can take on offensive linemen and make plays near the line. Finding a player with these qualities who is also fast enough to get to the sideline or blitz will not be easy, but they exist. Barrett Ruud and Demeco Ryans (restricted free agents) come to mind, but would be difficult to pry away from the Bucs and Texans respectively. Tyrone McKenzie, who was drafted last year and injured in preseason could possibly fill this role, but the draft may be the answer here as well.

I think the scheme Belichick has in mind involves being able to generate pressure and stop the run with only the front seven, while the fast DBs cover deep and look to pick off errant throws. To achieve this you need three large defensive linemen. Vince Wilfork and Ty Warren are two of the best in the business, and while they are occupying 3 or 4 blockers, the other DE needs to be attacking the quarterback. Mike Wright is a solid player, but not the type of explosive playmaker required at this position. Julius Peppers would be a great addition, but very expensive. If Wilfork does not return, this need is compounded even further as it would be much harder to stop opponents rushing attacks without his power, toughness and consistency.

Also needed are two outside linebackers who can set the edge and stop the run while still being able to get at the quarterback. There are not a lot of these physical freaks in football, but to successfully run a good 3-4 defense they are essential. The Cowboys have Demarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer, the Steelers James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley, the Chargers Shawn Merriman and Shaun Phillips. The two players the Patriots brought in to do the job have both been disappointments; Shawn Crable because of injuries and Adalius Thomas due to inconsistency and clashes with management. Fortunately there should be a number of players who fit this mold in the draft, and the Patriots should make sure they get the one(s) they want. Although he is not a three down player, the Pats should look to re-sign Tully Banta-Cain as he has proven to be an outstanding pass-rushing specialist.

Re-signing Leigh Bodden should also be a priority. His quality coverage has been a welcome upgrade over Ellis Hobbs, and having him on the roster should allow young cornerbacks Butler, Wilhite and Wheatley time to develop. If Bodden and Shawn Springs return, the Patriots will have a deep and talented secondary, as safety is also well stocked with talent.

Generally, the state of the Patriots is good. We have the most clutch quarterback in the league, the best coach, a talented young roster, and a surplus of high draft picks to work with in the next two years. While there are some holes to fill on the roster, and some key contributors to re-sign, there is plenty of reason to be optimistic. The further development and maturation of young players, and an infusion of new talent through the draft will insure the Pats continue to be one of the most consistent and feared franchises in the NFL next season and in the years to come.