Patriots Draft Strategy: Understanding Value

Written by Stephen Verman

The word commonly associated with the New England Patriots when it comes to the draft is “value.” Under the current system, a draft pick’s salary is based on how high they were taken in the draft. The player’s agent will look at the contract signed by whoever was drafted in the same position the year before, and use that as the starting point in negotiations. This means that each year there will be players that are among the highest paid at their position who have never before played a snap in the NFL. These contracts represent an enormous risk because they include huge guarantees, meaning that no matter how poor the rookie ends up playing, they will still earn that amount. The Patriots’ draft strategy under Bill Belichick has been to not only the get right player, but to get the right player at the right price.

Last year wide receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey went to Oakland 7th overall. Heyward-Bey received a five-year, $38.25 million contract with $23.5 million guaranteed. He played in 11 games last season, totaling 9 catches for 124 yards and one TD, an incredibly poor return on their investment for the Raiders.

The Eagles selected Jeremy Maclin 12 spots later in 2009 at 19th overall, and he received a five-year contract worth $15.5 million, with 9.5 million guaranteed. Maclin produced 56 receptions for 773 yards with 4 TDs for Philadelphia in 2009.

While there are a number of factors at play such as the Eagles having a better quarterback than the Raiders, the fact remains that Heyward-Bey earned more than twice as much, and produced far less for the team. Clearly the Eagles received good value for their pick because they spent less for more production.

Another part of the “value” concept involves the fact that the NFL has premium positions where players will always be paid more. Offensive tackles make more than guards because their job involves blocking speedy defensive ends. Since there are very few nimble 300lb people in the world, tackles are in higher demand and therefore better paid. When making a huge financial commitment to a high draft pick, it helps if the player is from one of the premium positions because you will have to pay whoever plays that position well anyway. This means quarterbacks, left tackles and elite defensive line players usually go high in the first round, leaving players who might be the best in their class at a non-premium position available later.

After the top dozen picks or so, the expected salaries become more reasonable. If you select toward the bottom part of the first round, you might have a choice between the top guard in the class or the fourth rated tackle. In this case the guard has more value because you get the highest rated player at the position.

For example, the Cleveland Browns had the fifth overall pick last year, but were interested in center Alex Mack. Instead of standing pat and taking Mack at 5, they traded down (twice) and selected him at 21. Mack was still the first center off the board, but received a contract worth much less than he would have been paid as the 5th overall pick. This represents good value for the Browns because of the money they saved and the extra draft picks they acquired while still getting the player they wanted.

The final part of the “value” concept is that certain positions are easier to fill than others. Middle linebackers often slide on draft day even if the player projects to be good in the NFL. In many systems the middle linebacker does not have to be an elite athlete, or a specific height and weight. This is not to say the position is easy, merely that the requirements are not as rigid as others. This often causes highly touted middle linebackers like Paul Posluszny in 2007 and James Laurinaitis and Rey Maualuga in 2009 to fall out of the first round. In the eyes of many teams, the difference between the top MLB and the fourth or fifth rated MLB is not as vast as for other positions, so waiting until later in the draft to take one represents good value.

Last year the Patriots traded out of the first round and selected four players in the second round: Pat Chung, S, Ron Brace, DT, Darius Butler, CB and Sebastian Vollmer, OT. All four signed very reasonable four-year contracts worth $5 million or less. None of these players were the first selected at their position, but New England saw them as key pieces of their team in the future. By signing them to smaller second-round contracts they kept money available to spend on other players. We saw those savings this offseason in new contracts for key contributors Tully Banta-Cain, Vince Wilfork, Stephen Neal, Kevin Faulk and Leigh Bodden.

The Patriots are again poised to get excellent value for their picks this year with the 22nd, 44th, 47th and 53rd overall selections. Since so many underclassmen declared for the draft, there is more top-end talent available, meaning you could get a player in the second round that would normally have gone in the first round. If the Patriots select in their current slots the contracts will also be very reasonable, giving them another four quality young players for a relatively small financial commitment.

Were you to add up the salaries of their four players selected in the top two rounds last year, and the probable contracts of their four top selections this year, the total amount and the guaranteed amount would still be a fraction of what the Bears gave to Julius Peppers this offseason (a six-year deal worth $91.5 million with $42 million guaranteed). Simply put, that’s good business. It remains to be seen how these decisions play out on the football field, but at least on paper they are very shrewd moves and a big reason why New England is competitive each year.