After having a few hours to digest what happened, the disappointment of how the Patriots played earlier today is finally sunk in.

Tom Brady was doing a lot of this on the sidelines earlier today

Playing as flat as they did in the first quarter (down 24-0), there was no question the Patriots weren’t going to climb out of that hole.  Their only chance was at the end of the first half, following a Julian Edelman punt return, but as they did time and time again, Tom Brady couldn’t handle the pressure and the Patriots had to punt the ball to the Ravens, who were able to run out the clock with run after run.

I think that the Patriots definitely missed Wes Welker, but having him out there wouldn’t have changed the outcome of this one.  The Ravens came out and fired on all cylinders early.  They took the run away from the Pats, and simply sat on the ball the entire game.  The Ravens ran the ball 52 times, compared to their ten throwing attempts.  The Patriots on the other hand ran the ball 18 times and threw it 42 times.  That’s now how you win in the playoffs, and the Patriots just dug themselves into too deep a hole to recover.

Looking at the talent on this Patriots team, there is no reason that they shouldn’t have put up a better fight against this Ravens team.  But there’s something that people might not be willing to admit but is definitely true: 2009 was a rebuilding year by all accounts for the Patriots.  Generally, you don’t see a winning season after the type of turnover the Patriots had on their roster, but Bill Belichick and co. still managed to create 10 wins and a division title.  Sure, there were some down moments like the Indy collapse, New Orleans beatdown, etc., but this team also created some great moments like the comeback over Buffalo and the thrashing of the Titans and the Jaguars.  We also saw some players emerge, like Brandon Meriweather, Tully Banta-Cain, Julian Edelman, Gary Guyton, and Leigh Bodden.  The Patriots also have a nice core of guys to build around on defense for the future, such as Jerod Mayo, Darius Butler, and Patrick Chung.

However, as this season comes to a close, you have to wonder who may have played his final game as a Patriot.  Will Junior Seau finally hang it up?  Will players such as Adalius Thomas be traded/released?  Will Stephen Gostkowski ever kick another field goal for the Pats?  Will offensive linemen Logan Mankins and Stephen Neal be re-signed?  Will the Patriots give Leigh Bodden the long-term deal he deserves?  Will Ben Watson still be the team’s tight end in 2010?  And lastly, will Vince Wilfork, who said he would be upset if given the franchise tag, return as the man in the middle for the Patriots defense?

One thing to consider, while looking ahead to the offseason, is that the Patriots will have a great opportunity to sign free agents with the upcoming uncapped year.  If the Pats had advanced to the final eight in the playoffs, they would have been restricted to signing free agents, unless they lost a free agent beforehand.  Now, assuming the next year will be uncapped, the Patriots will have a leg up on many of the other contenders.  You could argue that the Patriots are the top team unrestricted in their ability to sign free agents.

So, while all Patriots fans were disappointed and probably shocked by the way things turned out today, this could be a big offseason for the Patriots, as they will look to continue to add pieces and continue to develop their young players who will all be a year older in 2010.  Keep it tuned to PatriotsBlog.net, as we are moving into full offseason mode, starting right now.

Notes: I give the Patriots the edge here simply due to home field advantage.  The Patriots, as a team, are 8-0 at home this season.  Tom Brady, individually, is 8-0 at home in the playoffs.  While the Ravens’ defense certainly is better than the Patriots’, I wouldn’t say the Patriots are far behind.  If Ty Warren and Vince Wilfork come back from injury as expected, they can stop anyone in short yardage situations.  Leigh Bodden will be well rested, and Shawn Springs seems to be getting in a groove.  With the improved defensive communication with James Sanders back in the starting lineup, the Patriots look to be quickly improving on the defensive side of the ball.  On offense, as long as the Patriots have Tom Brady, with or without Wes Welker, they will get the nod there.  In the running game, the Ravens get the slight edge over the Patriots mostly because their group of Ray Rice, Willis McGahee, and LeRon McClain has been more consistent.  However, don’t sleep on the Patriots’ four headed attack of Laurence Maroney, Sammy Morris, Fred Taylor, and Kevin Faulk who all seem to be ready for the playoffs.

On Offense

The Ravens are led by 2nd year quarterback Joe Flacco who has aired the ball out a lot more this year, as he finished

Stopping Ray Rice may be the key to the Patriots winning on Sunday

with 21 touchdowns and over 3,600 yards passing.   Interestingly, Flacco has taken his fair share of hits recently, being sacked 18 times over the final six weeks of the regular season.

Flacco’s top targets include veteran Derrick Mason; who tore the Patriots apart in week four, tight end Todd Heap, and wide receiver Mark Clayton and Kelley Washington.  However, the Ravens’ most dangerous weapon offensively is running back Ray Rice.  Rice led the squad with 78 receptions as well as 1339 rushing yards on 5.3 yards per carry.  However, the Ravens’ talent in the backfield doesn’t end there.  They have LeRon McClain, the bruising halfback/fullback as well as Willis McGahee, who has come up big as of late.

On Defense

While the Ravens have a more than capable offense, their defense has been spectacular again this season.  Although they run a base 3-4,  they deploy more of an attacking defense with most of their work comes out of sub-packages and exotic blitz schemes.

The Ravens are still led by inside linebacker Ray Lewis, who had his highest tackle total since 2004, and was an especially dominant force in 2009.  In the secondary, they have one of the best ballhawking safeties of all time, Ed Reed.  Reed had been out with injury the four weeks prior to week 17, but he returned last week against the Raiders.  While he is still hurting, he will still be out there, and with Ed Reed in the game you have no choice but to take notice.  The Ravens also have another great safety, Dawan Landry, as well as two more solid cornerbacks in Domonique Foxworth and Chris Carr, who were both picked up during the offseason.

On the edge, the Ravens feature outside linebacker Terrell Suggs, who has battled injury and has had a bit of a down year, but is a formidable presence nonetheless.  The Ravens also have the solid Jarret Johnson, who is a solid presence on the outside, although he won’t dazzle you with his sack total.  Along the line, the Ravens feature the dominant Haoli Ngata, nose tackle Kelley Gregg, and ends Dwan Edwards, Justin Bannan, and Trevor Pryce, who picked up 6.5 sacks this year.

Earlier tonight, the Patriots fell flat to the New Orleans Saints, suffering their only multi-score deficit of the season, dropping the game 38-17.  There’s a lot that went on, so lets get straight to the analysis:

• Drew Brees is insane.  He was virtually unstoppable tonight.  Every pass of his was perfectly accurate.  A few of the Saints’ big plays came on perfect passes in nearly perfect coverage.  If Drew Brees proved anything tonight, it’s that he might be just as good as Brady and Manning.  Every time he stepped into a throw, every Patriots fan felt a collective sinking feeling tonight.  Brees was that good.
• The offensive line was atrocious tonight.  The Saints defensive line got consistent pressure on Brady, affecting a majority of his throws.  It seemed, just from watching the game once, that the Saints really dominated up the middle, and that Dan Koppen and Nick Kazcur really played sub-par.  Matt Light also looked rusty.  The o-line is really going to have to turn this around quick.
• The Drew Brees 2nd quarter touchdown to Devery Henderson was completely inexcusable.  I’m not sure if it was Meriweather’s or Wilhite’s fault, but that play was just a symbol for the poor play of the secondary tonight.  The only defensive back that played to his level was Leigh Bodden.  Off the top of my head, I can only think of one or two times that Drew Brees targeted his side.
• Where has Jerod Mayo gone as of late?  Haven’t seen much of him lately.
• The Saints’ interior offensive line really dominated the Patriots defensive line.  Vince Wilfork and Ty Warren were consistently being pushed off the ball resulting in 4-7 yard runs.  Kudos to that group for the Saints.  It’s not easy to push back the big boys up front for the Patriots.
• The Patriots are in desperate need of a pass rush.  The only Patriot consistently wreaking havoc is Tully Banta-Cain.  Beyond him, the pass rush has been abysmal.  It seemed that nearly every time Drew Brees dropped back to throw, he had all of the time in the world.  Something has to be fixed.  Without a pass rush, this team won’t make it far in January.
• On a positive note, I loved the running of Laurence Maroney.  He has gotten his swagger back.  He has been more decisive, and has shown brute strength when it comes to moving piles and trucking defenders.  If he keeps his play up, it will be a big bonus for the Patriots down the stretch moving into December.
• Lastly, taking a look at the playoff picture, the Patriots currently sit at fourth in the AFC with a 7-4 record.  There are two games ahead in the AFC East, and face the 5-6 Dolphins next week.  Looking at the race for the two seed, the Patriots are one game behind both the Chargers and the Bengals who are 8-3, and hold 6-3 AFC records.  The Patriots are 5-3 in the AFC, so this loss wasn’t that deep of a wound.

Photo Courtesy NFL.com

For the Patriots, the game will be a chance to get revenge following their devastating 35-34 loss to the Colts, who were 8-0 at the time.  But revenge will be no easy task.  The New Orleans Saints, at 10-0, have been the most dominating team in football up to this point in the season.  They are first in the league in points scored and total yards and also have a very opportunistic defense that ranks first in the league in takeaways.

On offense, the Saints have been nearly unstoppable so far in 2009.  They are lead at quarterback by veteran Drew Brees, who by showcasing accuracy, poise, and touch, has led the Saints to a 10-0 record, while establishing himself in the upper-upper echelant of quarterbacks with Peyton Manning and Tom Brady.  And while their passing game, led by receivers Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem and Lance Moore, as well as tight end Jeremy Shockey and running back Reggie Bush, whom coach Bill Belichick has taken a keen interest in defending.  However, as potent as the Saints passing attack is, their running game is that much more.  They are lead by a three headed attack of Mike Bell, Pierre Thomas, and Reggie Bush that ranks fourth in the league.  Bottom line is, it will be extremely tough to make this Saints team one dimensional.

On defense, the Saints are a little bit banged up in the defensive backfield with Jabari Greer, Tracy Porter, and former Patriot Randall Gay all banged up.  So there will be opportunities for the Patriots.  While the Saints have a lot of talent defensively, you can move the ball on them.  They are ranked 16th against the pass and 20th against the run.  The thing with them is that they create a lot of turnovers, so protecting the ball will be key for the Patriots.  Leaders on their defense include defensive end Will Smith, safety Darren Sharper, defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis who is returning from a sprained MCL, and linebacker Jonathan Vilma who is listed as questionable.

Keys to the Game – Patriots

1. Pressure Drew Brees – He will pick defense apart if he isn’t pressured consistently.

2. Win the Turnover Battle – Saints are not a team to easily give up turnovers, they just take them.  Winning the turnover battle will be key.

3. Attack the Injured Saints Secondary - Make them hurt quick, especially if they are without Greer and/or Gay.

Players to Watch – Saints

Darren Sharper, S, #42 – Veteran safety leads an opportunistic Saints defense with seven interceptions, three of which he has brought back to the house.

Reggie Bush, RB, #25 – Coach Bill Belichick has been talking up Bush all week.  While he is no Gale Sayers, he still brings a unique versatility to the run and pass game, and is a dangerous weapon.

Players to Watch – Patriots

Tully Banta-Cain, OLB, #95 – Has been the most disruptive pass rusher for the Pats this season, and the key to slowing Brees will be applying pressure.

Ben Watson, TE, #84 – Watson has been quiet the last couple of weeks, but with his athletic ability, could burst onto the scene at any moment, and could be an x-factor for tonight’s game.

Greg’s Prediction: Patriots 30 Saints 27

This game could easily go either way.  However, since the Saints are beat up in the secondary, and the Pats already lost a tough one against the Colts, I think the Pats will squeak this one out in a semi-shootout.

On paper, the Bucs, who are behind first year head coach Raheem Morris, really don’t stand much of a chance against the Pats today.  The Patriots are coming off one of their most impressive wins in franchise history, dismantling the Titans 59-0, while the 0-6 Bucs are coming off a 28-21 loss to the Panthers.

Players to Watch – Buccaneers

Josh Johnson, QB, #11: Johnson, in his second year, will be making his fourth start for the Bucs.  He has a good arm, and has rushed for 40+ yards in each of his starts.

Aqib Talib, CB, #25: Big, physical corner in his second year is part of a secondary that is struggling.  May see time on Randy Moss.

Players to Watch – Patriots

Brandon Tate, WR, #19: Rookie Brandon Tate was activated to the Patriots roster yesterday, meaning he will likely play today.  With the Pats’ receiving corps depleted, he could see some serious run at receiver.

Brandon Meriweather, S, #31: Brandon Meriweather has quickly established himself as one of the best safeties in the game today.  However, he has yet to record an interception this year.  Will today be the day?

Key to the Game – Patriots

More Big Plays: Looking back at the Titans game, and this pretty much goes without saying, but the key to the Patriots success was the big play, which up to that game, they had not been hitting.  The Patriots offense is on a roll right now, and the Buccaneers’ pass defense has looked very vulnerable this season to the long pass (worst in the NFL in 40+ yard passes allowed), so the Patriots will certainly have their chances deep.

Greg’s Prediction: Patriots 38 Buccaneers 10

I really don’t think the Bucs stand a chance in this one.  I think the Pats will come out and dominate, and move into the bye at 5-2.  I think that the long travel to London may slow the offense down a little, and while the Pats probably aren’t going to be posting another 59-0 shutout, this one has all of the makings of a blowout.

The Patriots came out of the gates strong, forcing a three and out and getting a nice punt return by Julian Edelman.  However, the Pats were quickly stopped and Stephen Gostkowski missed a 39 yard field goal.  From that point out, the Patriots went full force on the pedal and didn’t let up until the second half.

During the second quarter, Tom Brady and the Patriots offense scored 35 points, including five passing touchdowns, an NFL record.  Brady was perfect.  Every time he dropped back, he found Welker, Moss, or even Sam Aiken deep down the field.  It was like 2007 again.  It was awesome, and I think every Patriots fan enjoyed every waking minute of it.

For those fans that are whining about Bill Belichick running up the score, he didn’t.  Do you really expect an NFL team to stop and put backups in the second quarter of an NFL game?  Absolutely not.  And the logic of playing Brady for one series in the second half was so that the offense could continue their rhythm, because at times, they have come out flat in the second half.  Brady and co. came in and delivered on that first drive of the second half, so they finished their job and Belichick took them out of the game.

Just a few more thoughts on individual performances during the game:

• Rookie offensive tackle Sebastian Vollmer held down the fort at left tackle.  Really liked what I saw.  He has excellent size and feet, paved the way for that Maroney touchdown, and is definitely the future at the position.  Solid start for him.
• Speaking of Laurence Maroney, he had an excellent game.  When Sammy Morris went down in the first quarter, it was obvious the brunt of carries would go to him, and that he would have to be ready to step up.  Maroney certainly delivered, netting 123 yards on 16 carries.
• Defensively, the rookies Pat Chung and Darius Butler both had good games for the Patriots.  Chung was particularly active in the second half, racking up 8 tackles and an interception, while Darius Butler had a second quarter interception that help contribute to the Patriots rout.
• The entire defense played particularly well.  They completely shut down the pass, getting some solid pressure.  Although they let up a couple of big runs, they played solid run defense overall, and of course earned the shut out.
• Last but not least, it was really great to see Tom Brady back to form.  Before the game, I called for Tom Brady to have his breakout day.  He certainly delivered, throwing for nearly 400 yards and six touchdowns in just over one half of work.

Brady threw three touchdowns to Randy Moss yesterday | Courtesy Patriots.com

Offensively, the Titans feature the explosive and deceptive quick Chris Johnson, who is averaging six yards per carry.  Johnson is complemented by the power back LenDale White.  At quarterback, the Titans will start 36-year-old Kerry Collins, who has experienced his fair share of struggles this year.  If Collins struggles, the Patriots may also see the scrambling quarterback Vince Young, who is waiting his turn to play.  At receiver, the Titans showcase a three headed attack of Kenny Britt, Justin Gage, and Nate Washington.

On defense, the Titans have showed a strong ability to stop the run, but rank 31st in pass defense.  Both of their starting cornerbacks, Cortland Finnegan and Nick Harper are out for today’s game, meaning the Titans will be starting two rookie cornerbacks.    However, they still have Pro Bowl safety Michael Griffin in the secondary, to go along with a solid front seven that includes Keith Bulluck, Jovan Haye, and Kyle Vanden Bosch.

Key to the Game – Patriots: Air it Out and then some. With the Titans really hurting in the secondary, the Patriots will have plenty of chances to throw the ball today.  They will probably be able to throw the ball deep as well.  At this point in the season, the Titans’ biggest weakness is their pass coverage, and the Patriots should look to take advantage of that all day.

Player to Watch – Titans: Chris Jonhson, HB, #28. This really isn’t much of a question, who the player to watch for the Titans is this week.  Johnson is third in the NFL in rushing, and at 6.0 yards per carry, will force the Patriots to stay conservative on defense.  Also keep your eye on: Kenny Britt, WR, #18

Player to Watch- Patriots: Tom Brady, QB, #12. I normally wouldn’t put such a star player as the player to watch for the Patriots, but I really believe this could be Tom Brady’s breakout game.  Sure, Tom hasn’t thrown an interception since week 2.  And yes, he’s had some good games.  However, he has not had that game.  That game that makes you remember why he will be a first ballot hall-of-famer.  With the Titans’ secondary really beat up, I think this could finally be Tom’s day to have that break out game and connect with Randy Moss on the long ball. Also keep your eye on: Sebastian Vollmer, OT, #76

Greg’s Prediction: Patriots 34 Titans 10. Yes, I know the Titans are a talented team and their record does not reflect that.  But I think their pass defense is going to kill them again.  I think Brady and company will finally pull it all together and have that breakout game fans of New England have been looking for.

While the Patriots had a good first half showing, with Brady starting 14/19 and two touchdowns, the passing offense couldn’t do much of anything in the second half (sans a Moss 36 yard reception that was supplemented with a missed Stephen Gostkowski field goal).  Brady missed several throws throughout the game.  From a wide open Moss in the end zone in the first half, to not hitting Welker in stride on what could have been two big plays.  Also, the Pats #1 receiver, Randy Moss, was held to just one catch in the game. One positive to the passing game was the pass protection of left tackle Matt Light, who ironically went down with a yet-to-be-determined leg injury.

Rush Offense: C-

While the Pats weren’t particularly bad on the ground (Morris 17 for 68, Maroney 5 for 21), they didn’t do anything to really make a difference in the game. If a team can’t consistently rush for over 100 yards a game and keep pressure off the quarterback’s arm and rack up the time of possession, then that team’s ground attack clearly isn’t being affective.

Pass Defense: C+

Surrendering more than 300 yards passing to Kyle Orton can never be a good thing.  And down the stretch, the pass defense couldn’t keep the Broncos from scoring.  The Patriots struggled to get to the quarterback, and the cornerbacks stuck strictly to man defense. Only positive is that they didn’t surrender any big plays.

Rush Defense: B-

While Knowshon Moreno did run for 88, the rush defense did a solid job overall.  They came up with some key plays in short yardage situations thanks to Vince Wilfork, and the longest run the surrendered was a pedestrian 13 yards.

Special Teams: B-

Solid in kick-off and punt coverage.  Chris Hanson had a solid game.  Gostkowski hit a career long 53 yard field goal, but ultimately, his missed 40 yard field goal costs the Patriots the game.

Coaching: C

Something has to be done about first half adjustments, as this team can’t seem to keep it together down the stretch.  Also, I didn’t really notice enough stunting and things like that defensively.

Team Grade: C

The Broncos are clearly resilient, I’ll give them that.  You put them in a hole, you ask them to do the impossible, they keep finding ways to win (even if their wins are due to a missed chip shot field goal or a lucky tipped pass).  The Patriots clearly outplayed Denver for most of the game today, but their fourth quarter collapse sealed their fate.

The Pats’ defense, once again showed why they are becoming a force to be reckoned with.  With Jerod Mayo back, the Pats’ were even harder to move the ball on.  While the Broncos had some early success running the ball, the defense stiffened up and played well almost the entirety of the game.  Several times late in the fourth quarter they were placed in tough spots, and yet they held the Broncos out of field goal range.  I like what I’ve seen from them.  Vince Wilfork, Rob Ninkovich, Jerod Mayo, Leigh Bodden, and Brandon McGowan had particularly good games.  Had the offense done its part in the second half, this would have been an easy win for the Patriots.

Yes, the Patriots should have won the game today.  And seeing the Red Sox get eliminated just minutes before kickoff made this loss particularly painful.  Still, the Broncos deserve a lot of credit.  Bottom line, it’s all about wins and losses, and the Broncos are 5-0.

Next week, it’s the winless Tennessee Titans.  Stay tuned for more thoughts on the game tomorrow.

The Patriots offense really flopped in the second half | Courtesy Patriots.com