I had a great four years here at PatriotsBlog.net, and I wanted to thank my loyal readers who stuck with me through all of the years.  We started in 2006 at wordpress as “PatsBlog” before eventually switching over to our own server last summer.  Eventually, though, I had to move on.  At SB Nation, there are a lot of great features, and an opportunity to gain increased traffic.  While it is tough to give up the web site that I worked on (even created from scratch) for so many years, I feel like SB Nation is a great opportunity for both me and the readers of this blog.

Don’t consider this the end.  I’m still blogging, doing my usual thing.  Just under a new name.  However, I will keep the website alive here, so you can feel free to search the archives, and whatever else you want to do.  I will also be archiving my posts from SB Nation here after 90 days.

So, PatriotsBlog.net won’t be disappearing just yet.  Thanks again to those who have stood by me here for all these years.  And hey, it’s just a couple of months until football season.  LETS GO PATS!

Quarterback

Need Level: Low

The Patriots have a superstar in place with Tom Brady under center for the foreseeable future.  Behind Brady is second year man Brian Hoyer.  Hoyer was an undrafted free agent last season, and really impressed the coaching staff, earning a roster spot as the only quarterback behind Tom Brady, beating out the likes of Kevin O’Connell, Andrew Walter, and Matt Gutierrez.  The Patriots may look to bring in a fresh body to compete for the #2 with Hoyer.

Featured Prospect: Tim Tebow, Florida

Throughout the draft process, the Patriots have constantly been connected to quarterback Tim Tebow.  They held a private workout with him and brought him in for a pre-draft visit among other things.  Analysts have said that the Patriots are the perfect fit for Tebow, as he needs time to develop under a team with a quarterback in place.  While the Patriots may actually be an ideal scenario for Tebow, you have to ask, where would the value be for such a situation?  Is it in the second round?  I sincerely doubt it.  I see Tebow as more of a third round value, and while I like his intangibles, I don’t see the Patriots taking him in the 2nd round.

Running Back

Need Level: Moderate

While Laurence Maroney, Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris, and Kevin Faulk make up a nice rotation at running back, the latter three are all in their 30’s, and there isn’t a single back signed beyond 2010 for the Patriots.  With that said, it looks like running back is a position the Patriots should target in the first two rounds in the draft.  Players the Patriots could target in the first two rounds include Ryan Mathews, Montario Hardesty, Dexter McCluster (more of a WR), and Jonathan Dwyer.

Featured Prospect: Montario Hardesty

Montario Hardesty was a bit of a “one year wonder” for Tennessee.  At nearly 6′, 225, Montario is a bruiser.  He is tough, and constantly drags tacklers after being hit.  He is also a solid receiver out of the backfield, and is just a really tough player overall.  Plus, he’s got a nasty spin move.  If the Patriots took him at some point in the second round, he could be part of the rotation in 2010, before taking over as the lead back in 2011.

Wide Receiver

Need Level: Moderate

While the Patriots just added Torry Holt, the wide receiver position is still a moderate need for the Patriots.  Wes Welker will probably miss a good chunk of time in 2010, and Randy Moss could be in the last year of his contract.  Julian Edelman looks like a solid piece for the future.  Brandon Tate has a high ceiling but is still a relative unknown at this point.  Adding a young receiver with a high pick wouldn’t be such a bad thing for the Patriots.

Featured Prospect: Dez Bryant

There are no questions about Dez Bryant’s talent level: he is a top five worthy player.  However, there are questions about his character that could cause him to slide on draft day.  If he fell to the Patriots at 22, it would make for a very intriguing pick.  Dez could learn under Randy Moss for a year, then take over as the number one in 2011.  The Patriots brought Bryant in for a pre-draft visit, so there is a chance that they could be interested.

Tight End

Need Level: High

The Patriots have only one real option at tight end on their roster in Alge Crumpler (unless you count Rob Agnone or Rob Myers).  There is no question that tight end must be a priority for the Patriots.  If the Patriots want a tight end in the first round, the two most realistic options would be Jermaine Gresham and possibly even Rob Gronkowski.  Dennis Pitta, Aaron Hernandez, Jimmy Graham, Anthony McCoy, and Tony Moeaki all seem to be viable second round options.  If the Patriots don’t come out of this draft with one or two tight ends, I would be very surprised.

Featured Prospect: Dennis Pitta, BYU

I have Dennis Pitta as my third ranked tight end behind Gresham and Gronkowski.  The Patriots already acquired a blocking tight end in Alge Crumpler, so they could use a receiving tight end to complement him.  Dennis Pitta would be perfect in that role.  He has great size and decent speed.  While he may not be the best in-line blocker, he is very willing and can improve.  As a receiver, he may not threaten the seam consistently, but he has great hands, and consistently makes tough catches in traffic.  Pitta has the potential to be a Dallas Clark-type of weapon for Tom Brady.

Offensive Line

Position Need: Low-Moderate

The Patriots look pretty set at tackle with Matt Light, Sebastian Vollmer, and Nick Kaczur as the top three returning in 2010.  At guard, the Patriots return Stephen Neal and Logan Mankins, with Dan Connolly, Ryan Wendell, and last year’s 4th round pick Rich Ohrnberger providing depth.  At center, the starter is Dan Koppen.  Koppen has been regressing slightly as of late, and with Stephen Neal getting up there in age, and Logan Mankin’s contract situation up in the air, there could be a need for a center or guard early in the 2010 draft.

Featured Prospect: Matt Tennant, Boston College

Matt Tennant is thin for a center at 6-5, 300 pounds.  There are some questions as to whether or not he can hold up against NFL nose tackles.  However, he has good awareness, and is very quick off the snap.  He displays good technique, and can get to the second level; all traits the Patriots look for in their centers and guards.  If the Patriots are looking for a center in round 2, or if they acquire a pick in round 3, they could look in Tennant’s direction.

Sunday, Sept. 12 Cincinnati Bengals 1:00 p.m ET
Sunday, Sept. 19 @ New York Jets 4:15 p.m ET
Sunday, Sept. 26 Buffalo Bills 1:00 p.m. ET
Monday, Oct. 4 @ Miami Dolphins 8:30 p.m. ET
Sunday, Oct. 10 BYE
Sunday, Oct. 17 Baltimore Ravens 1:00 p.m. ET
Sunday, Oct. 24 @ San Diego Chargers 4:15 p.m. ET
Sunday, Oct. 31 Minnesota Vikings 4:15 p.m. ET
Sunday, Nov. 7 @ Cleveland Browns 1:00 p.m. ET
Sunday, Nov. 14 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 8:20 p.m. ET
Sunday, Nov. 21 Indianapolis Colts 4:15 p.m. ET
Thursday, Nov. 25 @ Detroit Lions 12:30 p.m. ET
Monday, Dec. 6 New York Jets 8:30 p.m. ET
Sunday, Dec. 12 @ Chicago Bears 1:00 p.m. ET
Sunday, Dec. 19 Green Bay Packers 8:20 p.m. ET
Sunday, Dec. 26 @ Buffalo Bills 1:00 p.m. ET
Sunday, Jan. 2 Miami Dolphins 1:00 p.m. ET

A few of my thoughts:

• Patriots open up at home against the Bengals, a clash of two playoff teams.  Can’t really remember the last time the Patriots didn’t open at home.
• The Patriots will face the Jets week 2 for the third straight year, as they travel to the Meadowlands as the Jets open their new stadium.
• The week 2 game against the Jets will kick off a round robin of AFC East games.  After week 4, the Patriots won’t play another division game until week 13.
• The Patriots have a very early bye week 5.  While it is generally better to get as late of a bye as possible, as Tedy Bruschi pointed out on ESPN last night, the early bye will give Wes Welker an extra week to recover, and may allow him to return one game earlier.
• Following the bye, the Patriots will have their toughest stretch of the season.  They will face the Ravens, Chargers, and Vikings in back to back to back games.  They will follow that up with a trip to Cleveland, before facing a 2 game home stand against the Steelers and the rival Colts.
• The Patriots will come off a short week after a tough game against the Colts and face the Detroit Lions in a Thanksgiving day match-up.  The last time the Patriots played on Thanksgiving in 2002, a game in which they won.  Not sure how I feel about this, but it’s always cool to see your favorite team on a holiday.
• After the Thanksgiving game, the Patriots will not have another warm game.  They wrap up their season with division games with a contest at Buffalo, and a home game against the Dolphins.

Torry Holt is now a New England Patriot

The Patriots have added another piece to their wide receiver corps.  Today, the team inked a deal with free agent wide receiver Torry Holt. Mike Reiss of ESPN Boston reports:

The Patriots have agreed to terms on a one-year contract with veteran wide receiver Torry Holt, according to a league source. ESPN’s John Clayton reports the deal could be worth up to $1.7 million.

The 33-year-old Holt played for the Jacksonville Jaguars last season, totaling 51 receptions for 722 yards. Holt, who spent the first 11 years of his career with the St. Louis Rams, enters his 13th NFL season.

While Holt, who will turn 34 this Junes, won’t be an absolute game breaker for the Patriots, he still could have an impact.  He isn’t the dominating presence he once was in St. Louis, but he could step up and be a solid #3 for the Patriots.  The #3 that Jabar Gaffney was, and that Joey Galloway wasn’t.

Holt will compete with Brandon Tate and possibly a rookie for playing time.  The worst case scenario I see with Holt is him being a great 4th receiver.

This is a low risk, potential high reward deal.  If Holt can return to anything close to his 2007 form, the Patriots will have added another great weapon for quarterback Tom Brady.

The word commonly associated with the New England Patriots when it comes to the draft is “value.” Under the current system, a draft pick’s salary is based on how high they were taken in the draft. The player’s agent will look at the contract signed by whoever was drafted in the same position the year before, and use that as the starting point in negotiations. This means that each year there will be players that are among the highest paid at their position who have never before played a snap in the NFL. These contracts represent an enormous risk because they include huge guarantees, meaning that no matter how poor the rookie ends up playing, they will still earn that amount. The Patriots’ draft strategy under Bill Belichick has been to not only the get right player, but to get the right player at the right price.

Last year wide receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey went to Oakland 7th overall. Heyward-Bey received a five-year, $38.25 million contract with $23.5 million guaranteed. He played in 11 games last season, totaling 9 catches for 124 yards and one TD, an incredibly poor return on their investment for the Raiders.

The Eagles selected Jeremy Maclin 12 spots later in 2009 at 19th overall, and he received a five-year contract worth $15.5 million, with 9.5 million guaranteed. Maclin produced 56 receptions for 773 yards with 4 TDs for Philadelphia in 2009.

While there are a number of factors at play such as the Eagles having a better quarterback than the Raiders, the fact remains that Heyward-Bey earned more than twice as much, and produced far less for the team. Clearly the Eagles received good value for their pick because they spent less for more production.

Another part of the “value” concept involves the fact that the NFL has premium positions where players will always be paid more. Offensive tackles make more than guards because their job involves blocking speedy defensive ends. Since there are very few nimble 300lb people in the world, tackles are in higher demand and therefore better paid. When making a huge financial commitment to a high draft pick, it helps if the player is from one of the premium positions because you will have to pay whoever plays that position well anyway. This means quarterbacks, left tackles and elite defensive line players usually go high in the first round, leaving players who might be the best in their class at a non-premium position available later.

After the top dozen picks or so, the expected salaries become more reasonable. If you select toward the bottom part of the first round, you might have a choice between the top guard in the class or the fourth rated tackle. In this case the guard has more value because you get the highest rated player at the position.

For example, the Cleveland Browns had the fifth overall pick last year, but were interested in center Alex Mack. Instead of standing pat and taking Mack at 5, they traded down (twice) and selected him at 21. Mack was still the first center off the board, but received a contract worth much less than he would have been paid as the 5th overall pick. This represents good value for the Browns because of the money they saved and the extra draft picks they acquired while still getting the player they wanted.

The final part of the “value” concept is that certain positions are easier to fill than others. Middle linebackers often slide on draft day even if the player projects to be good in the NFL. In many systems the middle linebacker does not have to be an elite athlete, or a specific height and weight. This is not to say the position is easy, merely that the requirements are not as rigid as others. This often causes highly touted middle linebackers like Paul Posluszny in 2007 and James Laurinaitis and Rey Maualuga in 2009 to fall out of the first round. In the eyes of many teams, the difference between the top MLB and the fourth or fifth rated MLB is not as vast as for other positions, so waiting until later in the draft to take one represents good value.

Last year the Patriots traded out of the first round and selected four players in the second round: Pat Chung, S, Ron Brace, DT, Darius Butler, CB and Sebastian Vollmer, OT. All four signed very reasonable four-year contracts worth $5 million or less. None of these players were the first selected at their position, but New England saw them as key pieces of their team in the future. By signing them to smaller second-round contracts they kept money available to spend on other players. We saw those savings this offseason in new contracts for key contributors Tully Banta-Cain, Vince Wilfork, Stephen Neal, Kevin Faulk and Leigh Bodden.

The Patriots are again poised to get excellent value for their picks this year with the 22nd, 44th, 47th and 53rd overall selections. Since so many underclassmen declared for the draft, there is more top-end talent available, meaning you could get a player in the second round that would normally have gone in the first round. If the Patriots select in their current slots the contracts will also be very reasonable, giving them another four quality young players for a relatively small financial commitment.

Were you to add up the salaries of their four players selected in the top two rounds last year, and the probable contracts of their four top selections this year, the total amount and the guaranteed amount would still be a fraction of what the Bears gave to Julius Peppers this offseason (a six-year deal worth $91.5 million with $42 million guaranteed). Simply put, that’s good business. It remains to be seen how these decisions play out on the football field, but at least on paper they are very shrewd moves and a big reason why New England is competitive each year.

Jared Odrick | Photo Courtesy PennLive.com

Name: Jared Odrick

Position: Defensive End/Tackle

School: Penn State

HT/WT: 6′5″, 304 lbs

Projection: Mid to Late 1st

Strengths: At 6′5″ and over 300 pounds, Jared Odrick is a mauler who played the 3-technique in Penn State’s 4-3 defense.  He is solid as a pass rusher, with good agility and a good bull rush.  He is also good and holding up at the point of attack, and can even make plays off double teams.  He is a solid tackler, and a high character, high work ethic guy.

Weaknesses: Odrick, while he can make plays off double teams, he doesn’t have the lower body strength to make himself a true anchor on the defensive line.  He can also play too upright at times, and there are questions if he would be a good fit at end in the 3-4 due to his label as a penetrator at Penn State.

How he Fits the Patriots: Many Patriots fans are intrigued by Odrick because of how he is built in the form of a Richard Seymour.  He is the prototype 3-4 end in terms of size.  However, there are questions if he would fit with the Patriots because he may be more of a penetrator than an anchor.  However, I think he could excel in the long run as a defensive end in the 3-4, and he could come in as a rotational lineman his rookie year, and could take over Mike Wright by year 2.  When all is said and done, Odrick could be a Seymour-type presence for the Patriots, as he is strong against the run, but also adds that pass rush element to his game.

Video:

1.         St. Louis Rams: Sam Bradford, QB

Bradford may not be the best player in the 2010 class but he makes the most sense for the Rams, both financially and on the field.

2.         Detroit Lions: Ndamukong Suh, DT

The Lions also need offensive line help, but I think Suh is the best player in this draft, and will be a terror in the NFL. In fact I am secretly hoping the Patriots will make a sensational (and highly unlikely) move to trade up for him.

3.         Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Gerald McCoy, DT

McCoy fits nicely with the Bucs, and this pick makes a lot of sense.

4.         Washington Redskins: Russell Okung, OT

Signing Donovan McNabb was a great move for Washington, especially since he only cost a 2^nd rounder. That move frees them up to focus on other positions of need.

5.         Kansas City Chiefs: Trent Williams, OT

Chiefs could go many directions here, but this pick has the best value.

6.         Seattle Seahawks: Eric Berry, S

Another talented player falls to the Seahawks, just like Aaron Curry last year.

7.         Cleveland Browns: Jimmy Clausen, QB

A new regime, a new QB in Cleveland.

8.         Oakland Raiders: Jason Pierre-Paul, DE

Explosive. That’s the word the Raiders look for on draft day, and that’s the word used to describe this raw talent.

9.         Buffalo Bills: Bryan Bulaga, OT

The Bills offensive line needs serious work, and Bulaga will bring a great attitude.

10.       Jacksonville Jaguars: Earl Thomas, S

A lot of directions they could go with this pick. They might want to trade down from here, but Thomas would be a great player for them.

Picks 11 through 32 after the jump

11.       Denver Broncos (from Chicago): Rolando McClain, ILB

Fits well with this team, and considered a safe pick.

12.       Miami Dolphins: Sergio Kindle, DE/OLB

Miami’s defensive front seven needs serious rebuilding.

13.       San Francisco 49ers: Bruce Campbell, OT

The ‘Niners have a number of good options here, and take an athletic player with great potential.

14.       Seattle Seahawks (from Denver): C. J. Spiller, RB

Seattle needs more options on offense, and Spiller will help right away.

15.       New York Giants: Joe Haden, CB

The Giant’s cornerback situation needs immediate attention.

16.       Tennessee Titans: Derrick Morgan, DE

The Titans need a quality pass-rusher who can play the run too.

17.       San Francisco 49ers (from Carolina): Brandon Graham, DE

This pick will make a lot of teams jealous, and be a major coup for San Fran.

18.       Pittsburgh Steelers: Dan Williams, DT

Casey Hampton can teach him the nose tackle position before he retires.

19.       Atlanta Falcons: Mike Iupati, OG

Falcons need some help on the offensive line, and they like high character guys who love to play football. Enter Iupati….

20.       Houston Texans: Kyle Wilson, CB

Their defense is getting good, but they’re not quite there yet. They need to replace Dunta Robinson.

21.       Cincinnati Bengals: Anthony Davis, OT

Davis has too much potential to pass on here, and Cincy is willing to take risks.

22.       New England Patriots: Maurkice Pouncey, C/G

With much of the top defensive talent off the board, the Patriots plan for life without Dan Koppen. Pouncey would a perfect fit – he excels out of the shotgun and has the strength to take on heavy nose tackles. He will help provide depth at OG as well. A trade down is very possible as well here.

23.       Green Bay Packers: Dez Bryant, WR

Donald Driver is a great receiver, but he can’t play forever. If Bryant is still here, someone may try to trade up for him.

24.       Philadelphia Eagles: Jared Odrick, DT/DE

Eagles need to fortify their defensive line to help sack McNabb next year.

25.       Baltimore Ravens: Jermaine Gresham, TE

The Ravens’ new receiving options will make their passing game almost as good as the running game. Gresham will help with both.

26.       Arizona Cardinals: Jerry Hughes, DE/OLB

Joey Porter is not the answer. Hughes is very fast and can get to the QB.

27.       Dallas Cowboys: Charles Brown, OT

Replacement is needed for the man with the best first name in football, Flozell Adams.

28.       San Diego Chargers: Ryan Matthews, RB

The Chargers add yet another weapon to their potent offense.

29.       New York Jets : Carlos Dunlap, DE

Santonio Holmes was a great addition for them. Dunlap adds much needed youth to the DE position.

30.       Minnesota Vikings: Devin McCourtney, CB

The Vikings have a big hole at cornerback.

31.       Indianapolis Colts: Rodger Saffold, OT

Peyton excels at getting the pass away in time, but that doesn’t mean he couldn’t use another second or two.

32.       New Orleans Saints: Sean Weatherspoon, OLB

The Saints defense used to be their weakness, but they are getting very good. Weatherspoon will help continue their rise.

The best way to avoid drafting players you don’t really want is to take them on your draft board.

That’s the theory, anyhow, used by Bill Belichick in New England and some of his proteges around the NFL.  Jeff Legwold of the Denver Post has an interesting piece Sunday how Josh McDaniels uses a “short board” when drafting, like his old boss.

Most teams list all potential draft picks on their board.  The Broncos had under 100 players last year, the only ones that fit what Denver wants to do.

“We want the players on our board that we want on our team — that’s the goal,” McDaniels said. “It’s the process we go through to make the best decisions, both short- and long-term for our team.”

Belichick has reportedly had as few as 25 players on his board in a given year, which is remarkable.

Bill Belichick has recently said that the team has interviewed or worked out upwards of 200 prospects in this year’s draft.  It’s hard to think that the Patriots could work off such a short board (and I imagine it will be longer than 25 with 12 picks in stow), but considering Belichick’s “expectations” in his players, it doesn’t surprise me that Belichick would refine his draft board so much.   The Patriots not only fit their scheme skill-wise, but players that have high football IQ’s, are good character guys, etc.

Therefore, when a player like Dez Bryant comes in for a pre-draft visit, it’s not a clear indicator he is on the Patriots draft board.  At a visit like that, the Patriots would not only assess his character, but assess his football IQ through quizzes and things of that nature.

Whether Bryant remains on the Patriots’ draft board is anyone’s guess.

Photo Courtesy Athlon Sports

The situation with Bryant is a very interesting one.  He is an immense talent, but there are some serious character questions surrounding him.  He is big, physical, has great hands, can make the tough catch.  But again, there are some character questions surrounding him that make you question if he is a top 10 pick.  Add his poor 40 yard dash time at his pro day on top of that, and you have a situation where a top 10 talent could wind up falling to the later portions of the first round.

The Patriots, in this case, are preparing for that exact scenario: what if Dez Bryant is there at 22?  By bringing him in to the facilities, Bryant will get a chance to meet with the coaching staff, possibly some teammates; allowing the Patriots to further access his character.  If the Patriots feel that Bryant is actually a good locker room guy, and has a high football IQ, then I believe they will greatly consider him if he falls to 22.  Randy Moss is in the last year of his contract, and the Patriots will need an outside threat to replace him if he does in fact leave after 2010.

Other players who have visited or are expected to visit with the Patriots include quarterback Tim Tebow of Florida, versatile defensive lineman Arthur Jones of Syracuse, running backs Montario Hardesty of Tennessee and Ryan Mathews of Fresno State, outside linebacker Jerry Hughes of TCU, defensive backs Kurt Coleman of Ohio State and Dominique Franks of Oklahoma, nose tackle Dan Williams of Tennessee, defensive end Tyson Alualu of California.  There have also been “reported” visits with conflicting reports regarding defensive linemen Cam Thomas of North Carolina, and Brian Price of UCLA.

There’s a lot that stands out from those names.  First, it is clear that the Patriots definitely intend to address the defensive line during the first two rounds of the draft, as the team has also looked at defensive lineman such as Jared Odrick, Torrell Troup, Al Woods, etc.  Second, the only pass rusher the Patriots have brought in for a pre-draft visit that we know about is Jerry Hughes.  Hughes is shorter than your prototype 3-4 outside linebacker, but he is explosive, and arguably one of the best pass rushers in this year’s draft.  Last, the Patriots could be looking to bring fresh legs to the running back position, as they are looking at two of the top runners in Ryan Mathews and Montario Hardesty.  We have already discussed Mathews on this blog, but Hardesty is an interesting guy as he shows good agility and power, although he lacks breakaway speed (and injuries could be a problem).  The Patriots could snag him in the 2nd or 3rd round.

Overall, this should be a big week for pre-draft visits, and we’ll be sure to report all of them as they happen.  It’s officially less than two weeks to the NFL Draft, and I couldn’t be more excited.

The Patriots have signed veteran defensive tackle Damione Lewis

The Patriots have added a new face to their defensive line.  According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, the Patriots have agreed to a contract with former Panthers and Rams defensive tackle Damione Lewis.

The deal will reportedly contain a low amount of guaranteed money, but shouldn’t be worth more than the $755,000 Lewis earned last season.

At 6′2″ and just over 300 pounds, Damione Lewis has played exclusively defensive tackle in the 4-3 for his career.  He has put up some decent sack numbers, but was primarily a run stuffer last year in Carolina when he started all sixteen games.  For the Patriots, Lewis should be able to play multiple positions.  While his size would project him the defensive end in the Patriots’ 3-4, he could probably slide inside over nose.  Assuming he makes the roster, the majority of his contributions will probably come as a rush defensive tackle in four man fronts, likely on third downs.

While this isn’t a blockbuster signing, it is certainly a solid pickup, as Lewis should be able to find himself a niche in the Patriots defensive line rotation.