Strengths:Ryan Mathews might be the most complete all-around back in this years draft. At nearly six feet and 220 pounds, Mathews has a solid, compactframe. He has excellent balance running through the hole. With his balance, he brings excellent vision. He doesn’t mess around either, he is a one cut, north/south runner. While he may not be the most powerful back, he keeps his pads low and breaks lot of tackles. He also knows when to cut outside. Mathews may also be the most polished pass protector of any back in this year’s draft. And while he wasn’t used much in the passing game, he has nice hands, and could be developed in that area. While he doesn’t show elite breakaway speed on film, he tested great, with a 4.37.
Weaknesses:Not the most elusive or quick footed runner. He also missed games in each of his three years at Fresno State. He might lack a second gear when he hits the open field.
How he fits with the Patriots: If the Patriots took Mathews, it would probably be at 22. Mathews could come in as a rookie, and immediately jump right into the rotation at running back. He has the skills to play on any down, and would likely make one of the Patriots’ current backs (Laurence Maroney, Fred Taylor, or Sammy Morris) expendable. If Mathews was drafted, I wouldn’t be surprised if he was starting by the end of 2010.
The time has finally arrived for our third mock draft this year. My goal is generally to have four or five per offseason. It’s amazing how quickly things change in regards to draft stock. Feel free to rip me as much as you would like, but I’ve put a lot of serious research into these picks. The picks have been chosen based on a combination of factors that include things such as the Patriots reported interest in a player (combine, pro days, private workouts, visits, etc.), and how I feel a particular player would fit in the Patriots’ system. With that said, lets dive right in.
Round 1, Pick 22: Brandon Graham, OLB, Michigan
Round 1, Pick 22: Brandon Graham
I really flip-flopped on this pick between Notre Dame wide receiver Golden Tate and Michigan outside linebacker Brandon Graham. The Patriots have shown interest in both, they both fill needs, and they both are terrific players. My hunch is that one of them will be drafted by a team before the Patriots pick at 22, but because I think he is the better prospect and fills a bigger need, I went with Graham. While Graham only reaches about 6′2″ in shoes, he has excellent quickness, strength, and an array of pass rushing moves. He is explosive off the edge, and uses his hands extremely well to disengage blockers and turn the corner. He is scrappy and gets to the quarterback well, using a variety of pass rush moves. He also has elite strength, and while he isn’t 6′4″ or 6′5″, he has the potential to be very good at setting the edge against the run, an area of his game that is very underrated. As a rookie,
Round 2, Pick 44: Ricky Sapp, OLB, Clemson
Round 2, Pick 44: Ricky Sapp
Yes, I understand that I have the Patriots taking Brandon Graham with their first pick, but hear me out on this one. Ricky Sapp fits the “Belichick mold” of outside linebackers. At 6′4″, 250 pounds, Sapp has an excellent burst combined with elite speed off the edge (4.65 40 yard dash). While Sapp may struggle to set the edge, he has the frame to add another 10 pounds, potentially allowing him to bulk up and fit that role. His rookie year, he would compete with Brandon Graham and Rob Ninkovich/Derrick Burgess for a starting outside linebacker spot. He has enough skill in coverage, and enough speed off the edge that he could very well be in the game on all passing downs. He would be an excellent nickel rusher at the least. Considering the troubles that the Patriots have had getting to the quarterback, and considering the high bust rate of rush linebackers, getting Sapp and Graham wouldn’t be such a bad thing. You can never have too many pass rushers.
Round 2, Pick 47: Damian Williams, WR, USC
Round 2, Pick 47: Damian Williams
With the Patriots going defense their first two picks, they turn their focus to wide receiver here. At this point, I narrowed the choice down to two players: Mardy Gilyard of Cincinnati and Damian Williams of USC. Gilyard is a good player. Not the fastest, but dangerous with the ball. He’s a hard worker and he had great production in college. However, I decided to go with Damian Williams here because he is the more polished player and I think he would be more comfortable on the outside as a rookie (although he would see time in the slot as well). Like Gilyard, Williams doesn’t have elite speed, but he is dangerous after the catch. He also has very good hands and consistently produced big plays while at USC. Williams, unlike Gilyard, is already an excellent route runner, and that will serve him well coming to New England. Bottom line, I think Damian Williams is an NFL-ready receiver, and he could come in and contribute from day one. The chance of him being a bust are pretty low.
Round 2, Pick 53: Dennis Pitta, TE, BYU
Round 2, Pick 53: Dennis Pitta
One of the things I love about this year’s draft is all of the value it has in the second round at the tight end position. My favorite of all of those guys with the round two value is Dennis Pitta of BYU. Pitta is an excellent receiver. He has worked some out of the slot, can run good routes for a tight end, is excellent at making catches in traffic. While he doesn’t have elite speed to burn linebackers down the seam, he makes up for it with his toughness. He sort of reminds me of Dallas Clark of the Colts. He is also willing as a blocker, although that isn’t the strongest part of his game. Still, with Alge Crumpler as the blocker, Dennis Pitta would make the perfect complement.
Round 4, Pick 119: Al Woods, DL, LSU
Round 4, Pick 119: Al Woods
At nearly 6′4″ and 311 pounds, Al Woods is a major sleeper for me when it comes to 3-4 defensive ends. To be honest, I have a 2nd round grade on Woods, but placing him as a second round pick probably wouldn’t go over too well with you guys. Woods is a guy with ridiculous strength. He holds his own against double teams at the point of attack, and can drive offensive linemen back into the quarterback. While he lacks explosion out of his stance, and isn’t the most athletic, Woods could immediately make an impact in the defensive line rotation, and could be a starter by year two. With his size and strength, would could play nose or end in the 3-4, and could be a two-gap defensive tackle in the 4-3. The Patriots have already worked him out privately; definitely would be a solid pick.
Round 6, Pick 190: Marcus Easley, WR, UConn
Round 6, Pick 190: Marcus Easley
A bit of a “one year wonder,” Marcus Easley has the ultimate combination of size and speed. He can threaten vertically, and while the former walk-on only had one really productive year, he had an excellent pro day, showing he can make catches outside his frame. In the sixth round, the risk would be low, but the potential reward is sky high.
A cornerback prospect with good size, instincts, and willingness in run support, although he can sometimes be caught out of position. While he has good speed, he isn’t an elite athlete. However, with his frame, you have to be intrigued.
Round 7, Pick 229: Nate Byham, TE, Pittsburgh
Round 7, Pick 229: Nate Byham
The Patriots, having already selected Dennis Pitta, need another blocking tight end, as Alge Crumpler will not be around forever. Byham lacks the athleticism to be a big receiving threat, but is great as a blocker, and could be the team’s goal line/3rd tight end as a rookie.
Round 7, Pick 231: Armanti Edwards, QB/WR, Appalachian State
Round 7, Pick 231: Armanti Edwards
The Patriots took a risk on a quarterback/receiver conversion last year, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they did it again. However, unlike Edelman, Edwards has some legitimate skill at quarterback. He has a nice over the top delivery, and is pretty accurate with his throws. While he faced mostly inferior competition, he had big games against some 1-A schools (Michigan and LSU). He is super athletic. Very fast. He could become a heck of a weapon for some team late in the draft. Plus, the Patriots already worked him out privately (and gave him some run at QB).
Round 7, Pick 247: LeGarrette Blount, RB, Oregon
Round 7, Pick 247: LeGarrette Blount
Well you might be a little shocked about this name. Character issues aside, LeGarrette Blount is a heck of a talent. If he gets in shape, he could be one hell of a bruiser, in the form of a Corey Dillon. And lets be honest, if the pick doesn’t pan out, it won’t matter much, it’s only a seventh round pick.
Round 7, Pick 248: George Johnson, DE/OLB, Rutgers
Round 7, Pick 248: George Johnson
Johnson has excellent size, great strength, and average speed. He is a team leader who can set the edge and make plays in the backfield. He might not be an elite pass rusher yet, but he could develop with time.
With so many picks in the draft, I’m assigning the Patriots their own Mr. Irrelevant. Never heard of Bustle? Neither have I. And don’t worry, I haven’t watched tape on him. Bustle is a 6′3″, 300 pound athletic guard, built in the frame of a Stephen Neal. The Patriots worked him out privately. Who knows?
Many Prognosticators Have Rex Ryan and the Jets De-Throning the Patriots as the Kings of the AFC East in 2010
2009 record: 9-7 2009 record vs. Patriots: 1-1
Defense:
The Jets defense was impressive last season, finishing as the top ranked unit in the NFL. Outstanding play from cornerback Darrelle Revis was a large factor in their success, as was their constant pressure on the quarterback using exotic blitz schemes. In Rex Ryan’s 3-4 defense you’re never sure who will blitz, or where they will come from, which can put the offense back on their heels. The fact that Revis can cover the opponent’s top receiver on his own makes this scheme even more effective. Ryan’s approach is to blitz more players than the offense can block, and Revis essentially gives him a one man advantage. Instead of having to assign a safety to help in coverage, that safety is free to blitz or pick up another player’s assignment, allowing that player to blitz.
The Jets run defense finished ranked 8th in the league, giving up an average of only 3.8 yards per carry. This was mostly without nose tackle Kris Jenkins who missed 10 games last season with an ACL tear. If he returns at full strength he should make the Jets even more difficult to run against. They could do with some fresh pass rushing talent, especially at the DE position where starters Marques Douglas and Shaun Ellis are 33 and 32 respectively. Their outside linebackers Bryan Thomas, 30, and Calvin Pace, 29, performed well last season, but there is little depth behind them, and Vernon Gholston has not performed well. The Jets will probably try their luck at these positions again in April’s draft.
New York traded with San Diego for cornerback Antonio Cromartie this offseason which caused an immediate stir. The Jets gave up a 2011 third round pick that will likely become a second round pick depending on how much Cromartie plays. Antonio was outstanding in 2007 when he snared 10 interceptions, but slipped on the depth chart last season, and has been branded with a poor attitude. He is very athletic and the Jets hope he can rediscover his form in a new scheme. He will get plenty of chances to prove himself as quarterbacks look to avoid throwing at Revis.
The Jets also sent safety Kerry Rhodes to Arizona for a 4th round pick in the 2010 draft and a 7th rounder in 2011. Rhodes was excellent under former coach Eric Mangini, but fell out with Ryan and was unhappy due to lack of playing time. Brodney Pool, who has a history of concussions was signed to a one-year contract, but it remains to be seen how much he can contribute.
There is no doubt the Jets defense will be good again next year, and the return of Jenkins should not be underestimated. However, their moves in the secondary seem very high-risk, and I am not convinced that area of the defense has been improved. Relentless pressure on the quarterback made the secondary’s job easier last season, but the bar has been set very high. Their defense was the deciding factor in a number of wins, and opponents will try to adapt in 2010. Should the unit slip at all, New York will find it hard to repeat last season’s success.
Offense:
The Jets power rushing game was very effective last season, and led the NFL with 172.2 yards per game on average. Thomas Jones was the workhorse, with Leon Washington and rookie Shonn Greene also making significant contributions. Greene is a powerful runner whose best games came toward the end of the year. He supplanted Jones as the favored back for New York’s playoff run and his 304 rushing yards were the most by any player in the postseason.
The Jets will rely heavily on Greene this year as Jones was allowed to sign with Kansas City at a modest price and Washington will be recovering from a devastating leg break suffered mid-season. The loss of Jones is big, and Greene will have a tough time filling his shoes. He is one of the most consistent and durable backs in the league, totaling over 1,000 yards in each of the past five seasons while only missing one game. LaDainian Tomlinson was brought in to share the load, but he averaged only 3.3 yards per carry last season, and has shown signs of decline.
Part of the Jets reliance on the run last season was due to the inexperience of their rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez. Sanchez was so highly coveted that New York traded up to make him the 5th player selected in the 2009 draft. Sanchez started the season by winning his first three games, including a home victory over New England in Week 2. The Jets then proceeded to drop six of the next seven contests, with Sanchez racking up 14 interceptions and five fumbles in those games.
Sanchez was given a much shorter leash and less responsibility over the final six games as he focused on limiting mistakes. He finished the regular season with an average of 162.9 yards per game, 12 passing TDs, 3 rushing TDs, 20 interceptions and 10 fumbles (3 lost). While it is no small feat to reach the conference Championship as a rookie quarterback, 2009 was very much a mixed bag for Sanchez. He has weathered the brutal scrutiny of playing in New York, but is still a long way from the franchise quarterback he was drafted to be.
Part of the problem is the Jets lack of quality receiving targets. Tight end Dustin Keller has emerged as a reliable target over the middle, but Braylon Edwards and Jerricho Cotchery are too inconsistent, and there is very little depth behind them. Edwards is only signed to a one year deal, so the Jets are in the market for an elite pass catcher. They may try to trade for Denver’s Brandon Marshall, draft a WR early, or perhaps both.
Even with the addition of a quality receiver, second year players Greene and Sanchez will be the key for the Jets offense in 2010. The team knew who they wanted in last year’s draft and gave up a lot to take both players. We will soon find out if their gamble was a good one.
New York will be competitive this year, and should push the Patriots for the top spot in the AFC East. The Jets had a memorable postseason run, but only stumbled upon the playoffs when teams like Denver, Jacksonville and Miami collapsed down the stretch and because the Colts and Bengals laid down for them in the final two weeks. I am not convinced their team has been improved thus far in the offseason, and if their luck from 2009 doesn’t hold, they could be in for a difficult year. The good news is their schedule is not as brutal as other teams in the division, and they have favorable road matchups. The Jets will be right there if New England slips up, but without a quality quarterback to count on they will still finish a step or two behind.
2010 Schedule:
Home: Buffalo, Miami, New England, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Green Bay, Minnesota, Houston
Away: Buffalo, Miami, New England, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Detroit, Denver
FOXBOROUGH, Mass. – The New England Patriots announced today the signing TE Alge Crumpler. Terms of the contract were not disclosed.
Crumpler, 6-2, 262 pounds, is a veteran of nine NFL seasons with the Atlanta Falcons (2001-07) and the Tennessee Titans (2008-09). He has stated 122 of 139 regular season games and has accumulated 367 receptions for 4,691 yards with 37 touchdowns. Among active NFL tight ends, Crumpler (12.8) ranks second in average yards per reception to Antonio Gates (13.0). In addition to his pass-catching skills, Crumpler is also known for his physical presence at the line of scrimmage, helping the Falcons offense lead the NFL in rushing in three of his last four seasons in Atlanta.
Crumpler originally joined Atlanta as a second-round draft choice (35th overall) out of North Carolina in 2001. He signed with Tennessee as an unrestricted agent prior to the 2008 season. Crumpler earned four-straight Pro Bowl honors from 2003 through 2006. He enjoyed one of his best seasons in 2005 when he registered career-highs with 65 receptions for 877 yards. Crumpler followed that campaign with a career-best eight touchdowns in 2006.
Last season in Tennessee, Crumpler started 14 of 16 games and finished with 27 receptions for 222 yards and one touchdown.
Picking up Crumpler fills a huge need for the Patriots at tight end. Crumpler is an excellent blocker, especially in the running game. He is listed at 6′2″, 262, but it has been reported that at times he has weighed in at close to 300 pounds. By bringing in Crumpler, the Patriots are bringing in not only a blocker, but someone who can contribute in the receiving game as well. While Crumpler likely won’t be matching the production he had in Atlanta, he will get some opportunities to catch some passes.
In addition to his play on the field, Crumpler will also provide a great locker room presence for the Patriots. All week, former coaches and teammates lauded Crumpler’s leadership, intelligence, and professionalism. That’s the type of player the Patriots were missing last year, and hopefully, Crumpler’s leadership will help fill that void.
Now, the Patriots could choose to add another veteran tight end before the draft. However, I think it’s more likely that the Patriots bring in a tight end in round two (Rob Gronkowski, Dennis Pitta, Dorin Dickerson), and possibly another in the 6th or 7th rounds.
Written by Stephen Verman, this is the second in a series of three articles breaking down the other teams in the AFC East.
2009 record: 7-9 2009 record vs. Patriots: 1-1
Defense:
Miami drafted two cornerbacks, Vonte Davis and Sean Smith early in the 2009 draft, and both showed the potential to succeed at the pro level. Smith is a large corner at 6’ 3”, and has good speed and agility for his size. He started the entire season, tallying 39 tackles and 12 passes defended. Davis, who is known for his speed and ball skills earned a starting berth week 8 against the Jets, and finished the season with 51 tackles, 11 passes defended and 4 interceptions, one of which he returned for a TD. Davis picked Tom Brady in each of the games against New England, and looks like a future centerpiece of the Dolphin’s secondary.
Despite promising results from their young corners, Miami’s pass defense was frequently torched for long gains. They allowed 57 completions of 20 yards or more, third most in the NFL, and tied for the most completions allowed of 40 yards or more with 17. Pressure on the quarterback was not the issue, as only the Steelers and Vikings had more sacks in 2009, so the problem looks to be mainly with the safeties. Miami cut former starter Gibril Wilson, and will likely look to improve their safety options in the draft.
The Dolphins were mediocre against the run, finishing in the middle of the NFL pack in most categories. They have major question marks along the defensive line as NT Jason Ferguson was recently suspended by the NFL for the first 8 games of 2010 for using performance enhancing drugs. DE/OLB Jason Taylor is a free agent, and rushing linebacker Joey Porter was cut due to underperformance and clashes with management. Taylor and Porter combined for 16 sacks last season. While Miami has a number of young players who may emerge, it will be difficult to replace that production, and Taylor’s leadership would be sorely missed.
Former Cardinal Karlos Dansby was signed to a monster deal at the start of free agency. Dansby will help solidify the middle of the defense. He is a good tackler and has the speed to cover tight ends and get to the sideline. His signing is a step in the right direction, but numerous holes remain on defense, and there are few quality veteran free-agents available to fill them. Unless head coach Tony Sparano can get better results out of the players he has or players he drafts, it is likely the Dolphins’ defense will take a step backward in 2010.
Offense:
Miami has one of the best running games in the league, and finished 4th in total rushing yards despite the loss of Ronnie Brown in week 10. Brown and Ricky Williams are an excellent tandem, and dangerous out of Miami’s wildcat formation. The downside is they are both prone to injuries, and at 32, Williams is past the age where rushers typically start to lose their effectiveness. That was certainly not the case last year as he finished with 1,121 yards and 11 TDs, but it remains a concern for the future.
Quarterback Chad Henne emerged this season as a competent quarterback who can compliment the running game. He is not flashy, but has the confidence and skills necessary to succeed in the NFL. Miami is one of the more creative teams offensively, and Henne often comes off the field for the versatile Pat White when they run the wildcat. While having numerous options is a good thing, for Henne to achieve his full potential he needs to know he is the trusted leader of the offense.
A large part of the problem is the Dolphin’s lack of quality receiving targets. Ted Ginn Jr., who was drafted 9th overall in 2007 has been a major disappointment, tallying only 5 receiving TDs in three seasons. Devone Bess showed some potential last year, leading the team in receptions and receiving yards. Bess is good at picking up yards after the catch, but like Ginn Jr. he is under 6’ tall, and far from a number one receiver. Miami needs to significantly upgrade the WR position in the offseason, and will probably do so through the draft.
2010 Schedule:
Home games: Buffalo, New England, N.Y. Jets, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Detroit, Tennessee
Away games: Buffalo, New England, N.Y. Jets, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Green Bay, Minnesota, Oakland
Earlier today, the Patriots released their official team of the decade, a team that included just 25 spots. That being said, I thought it would be interesting to to something a little bit different: make an entire 53 man Patriots team of the decade. Here’s what I came up with, and be sure to tear apart my choices in the comments section.
Quarterback (3): Tom Brady #12, Drew Bledsoe #11, Matt Cassel #16
Runningback (4): Corey Dillon #28, Kevin Faulk #33, Antowain Smith #32, Laurence Maroney #39
Fullback (1): Heath Evans, #44
Wide Receivers:(6) Troy Brown #80, Randy Moss #81, Wes Welker #83, Deion Branch #83, David Givens #87, David Patten #86
Tight Ends: (3) Daniel Graham #82, Benjamin Watson #84, Christian Fauria
Offensive Tackle (3): Matt Light #72, Nick Kaczur #76, Tom Ashworth #68
Offensive Guard (3): Joe Andruzzi #63, Stephen Neal #61, Logan Mankins #70
Center (2): Dan Koppen #67, Damien Woody #65
Nose Tackle (2): Vince Wilfork #75, Ted Washington #92
Defensive End (4): Richard Seymour #93, Ty Warren #94, Bobby Hamilton #91, Jarvis Green #97
The New England Patriots announced Wednesday afternoon that they’ve agreed to terms with running back Kevin Faulk.
The team did not release the terms of the deal, but a source told ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter the deal was for one year and will be signed Thursday. Another source said that Faulk will receive a $1 million signing bonus and can earn an additional $2 million in salary and incentives.
Faulk, who has been with New England since 1999, has been one of the Patriots’ most reliable veteran receivers. While he’s slowed down a bit of late, he remains productive. Faulk averaged 5.4 yards per carry last season, with 335 yards on 62 carries, while tying for fourth on the club with 37 receptions.
Another great deal for New England, as they return yet another key veteran from 2009. Faulk, who will be 34 this coming season, hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down. Although he may be the oldest running back under contract in the NFL, Faulk has avoided the wear and tear of your typical every down back, and should be back to his usual third down and passing back role in 2010.
A lot of people were worried that, considering the time it took to get this deal done, Faulk might be contemplating other options. However, that was never the case. According to reports, Faulk deflected interest from up to five different teams (even receiving offers from the Redskins and Eagles), but never really considered leaving the Patriots. 2010 will be Faulk’s 12th year with the Patriots. He still wants to win, and he still has a lot to offer.
Free-agent cornerback Leigh Bodden has reached an agreement in principle to return to the New England Patriots, ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter reports.
Bodden, who spent today in Houston visiting the Texans, had also been keeping an open dialogue with the Patriots. While an agreement in principle has been reached with New England, Bodden’s agent, Alvin Keels, cautioned that no contract has been signed at this point.
“Reports of Leigh Bodden re-signing with the Patriots are not true and premature at best,” Keels wrote on his Twitter account. “Leigh is still evaluating his options. Leigh has always indicated his desire to return to New England, but nothing is official and probably will not be until [tomorrow] at the earliest.”
Essentially, what Keels is saying is that the two sides have a deal in place, but Bodden has yet to sign the actual contract, meaning nothing is official as of yet. If this is true, and barring any hiccups in the contract being signed, bringing back Bodden will be huge for the Patriots.
Bodden, in my opinion, is a #1 cornerback in this league. To prove this to you, I bring in data from ProFootballFocus.com. According to their rankings, Bodden was the 14th best cornerback in the league last year. He was 13th best against the pass and 13th against the run. Only 50% of passes thrown his way were completions, good for tenth in the league. Lastly, his average QB rating of all passes thrown his way was just 59.3, good for 13th in the league. What does all of this tell us? It tells us that Bodden is a top 15, starting, #1 cornerback in this league. With his blend of physical play at the line, his excellent man coverage, and ability to step up against the run, the Patriots will be lucky to have Bodden back in the fold.
With a potential return of Bodden, the Patriots would have him, Shawn Springs, Jonathan Wilhite, Darius Butler, Terrence Wheatley, and Kyle Arrington on the roster at the position. Bodden would be starting on one side, while Springs, Wilhite, and Butler would battle it out for the other starting position (although Butler and Wilhite will have to man the slot position as well).
If the agreement holds, this move will really solidify the Patriots’ secondary.
Written by Stephen Verman, this will be the first in a series of articles breaking down each of the teams in the AFC East, looking at their strengths and weaknesses, and the tasks that lie ahead for each team in the offseason.
Buffalo Bills: 2009 record: 6-10 2009 record vs. Patriots: 0-2
Last season the Patriots won two close games against the Bills, continuing their streak of 13 straight victories. While this is an impressive statistic, the Bills should in no way be underestimated this season. The Patriots aura of invincibility is gone, and the Bills will be looking to gain a foothold in this suddenly dangerous division.
Defense:
The Bills strengths and weaknesses on defense are obvious. Their secondary was vastly improved last year, but they cannot stop the run. Buffalo ranked 2nd in the league against the pass last season with only 2,948 total passing yards allowed. They were second in the NFL with 28 interceptions. That’s 18 more than they had in 2008. Rookie Jarius Byrd finished tied for first in the NFL with 9 interceptions, including an astounding 7 picks in as string of 4 games. Buffalo also tied for second in the league with only 14 passing TDs allowed.
Only The Chiefs and Buccaneers had a worse run defense than the Bills. Buffalo allowed a staggering 4.7 yard average per run, and an average of 156.3 rushing yards per game. The Bills have a new coach in Chan Gailey, and are switching to a 3-4 defense, so perhaps this will help solve the problem against the run. However, their best defensive line player, 32-year old DE Aaron Schobel, will likely have to transition to outside linebacker in this scheme, taking him out of his comfort zone. It remains to be seen if they can maintain their positive momentum through the transition.
If the 3-4 defense allows the Bills to generate more pressure on the quarterback, and the secondary continues to improve, they will be very difficult to throw against. Inside linebacker Paul Posluszny has emerged as a potential playmaker with 111 tackles, 3 interceptions and 3 forced fumbles in 2009. The problem is Buffalo does not yet have the defensive line players on the roster to successfully stop the run, and until they do, teams will continue to exploit this weakness.
Offense:
The Bills have some good players on offense, but nobody elite. Fred Jackson has emerged as a running back willing to work hard for yardage, and seems well suited to playing in Buffalo. Last season he had 1,062 rushing yards with a 4.5 yard average per carry. Jackson is both quick and powerful, and runs with an aggressive style. He frequently picks up extra yards after contact, and is difficult to stop for no gain. He is also adept at catching passes out of the backfield, and had the second most receptions on the team.
If the Bills were able to balance Jackson’s production with an adequate passing game they would have a decent offense, but neither Trent Edwards nor Ryan Fitzpatrick have been very consistent. Both have played well at times, but neither has shown they are the long-term answer at the position. Part of the problem is the offensive line, which struggled in 2009, allowing 46 sacks (tied for 4th most in the NFL). The O-line is even more of a concern this offseason with the retirement of starting right tackle Brad Butler at the age of 26.
Terrell Owens is a free agent and unlikely to re-sign. The Bills’ receiving corps is already thin, and while Lee Evans is fast, he cannot carry the load himself. A tight end and another quality receiver would go a long way toward improving their offense, but until they have a quarterback they trust to lead the franchise, the Bills will have to hope their defense is enough to keep them competitive.
2010 Schedule:
Home games: Miami, New England, N.Y. Jets, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Detroit, Jacksonville
Away games: Miami, New England, N.Y. Jets, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Green Bay, Minnesota, Kansas City
2010 record prediction: 6-10 (last in AFC East)
The Bills have a good number of winnable home games next season, but will likely struggle against a tough road schedule.
According to Leigh Bodden’s agent Alvin Keels, Patriots’ free agent cornerback Leigh Bodden is expected to visit the Houston Texans on a free agent visit. Bodden, 28, had 55 tackles and five interceptions in fifteen games for the Patriots last year.
While the Patriots have shown interest in retaining Bodden, losing him would create a need at cornerback for the Patriots, as the Patriots can’t rely on Shawn Springs to go a full 16 games at this point in his career. Currently, the top three cornerbacks on the roster are Springs, third year cornerback Jonathan Wilhite, and last year’s rookie Darius Butler.
